While the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) is anticipating Luis to be felt by Sunday afternoon in much of the country, the storm’s enhancement of the habagat or southwest monsoon has resulted in flooding in various parts of Mindanao, forcing some 5,000 families to leave their homes.
At a press briefing Saturday at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council in Camp Aguinaldo, Pagasa’s forecasting section chief Rene Paciente said that the storm was expected to bring heavy to intense rain to some parts of Luzon.
“Luis’ winds will not be that strong,” he told the Inquirer, and pointed out that what was causing more concern was the amount of precipitation that the tropical cyclone would bring coupled with rain brought by the enhanced monsoon.
He said storm surges were to be expected in coastal areas particularly in places where public storm warnings No. 2 and No. 3 were raised.
“We expect Luis to develop into a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph and gustiness of up to 150 kph before it makes landfall,” Paciente added.
The tropical storm is expected to make landfall Sunday night or Monday morning somewhere in the Cagayan-Isabela area in Northern Luzon.
As of 10 a.m. Saturday, Luis was 456 east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, with sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gusts of 120 kph. It was moving west-northwest at 17 kph.
The estimated amount of rainfall is heavy to intense (from 7.5 mm per hour to 20 mm per hour) within the 400-km diameter of the storm, Pagasa said.
Public storm signal No. 1 was raised over the provinces of Isabela, Cagayan, Aurora, Quirino and Catanduanes, where 30 kph to 60 kph winds are expected and flashfloods and landslides are likely.
Based on its characteristics, Paciente compared “Luis” to Typhoon Pedring (international name Nesat) which battered 8 regions from September 24 to 28 in 2011.
Pedring left 85 people dead and 21 others missing and destroyed over P15 billion worth of property in the regions of Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Bicol, the Cordillera Administrative Region and Metro Manila.
NDRRMC executive director Alexander Pama said that the 8 regions previously battered by Pedring as well as the Western Visayas, the Zamboanga Peninsula, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao have all been placed on alert and all local DRRM offices activated.
Pama identified areas considered critical as the provinces of Abra, Apayao, Aurora, Benguet, Cagayan, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Quezon, Quirino, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Pampanga, Rizal, Albay, Bataan, Cagayan, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila.
“This is if ‘Luis’ does not change track,” Pama said, referring to the areas which could be pounded by moderate to intense rains.
The Department of the Interior and Local Government’s chief of the Central Office Disaster Coordinating Center Allan Tabell said that evacuation centers in the 12 regions have been activated for the preemptive evacuation of coastal areas.
Tabell said that as early as Friday, some 5,000 families from Midsayap in North Cotabato were forced to flee because of floods triggered by monsoon rains. Another 700 families, he said, were displaced by armed encounters between government forces and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.
